Newsletter 84

Nuclear fusion for steel, Taiwan subs and how a heart starts

Hi, I’m Gavin. This is my experimental newsletter that explores thinking - how we might think better and learn together as we do so.

I explore several key topics through the lens of several core themes: systems thinking, scenario planning, trends, and cross-disciplinary innovation. These often relate to key issues: climate change, pandemics, astronomy, physics, health, history, philosophy, culture, rocketry, conflict, the impact of technology on society and more (lol!). With a larger question behind it all: how do we progress and how do we progress better?

I hope you like where we go. (1,269! - welcome all new arrivals)

Gavin

PS: if you like the newsletter please share it! (And I always appreciate tweets about it too!) 🙏

If you support this newsletter and really like it you can also become a paid subscriber - you get nothing different except the satisfaction of knowing that you’re supporting this current weekly missive!

---

Reading list - the best stuff to read

(The best reads I’ve come across, with excerpts, links, authors and how long it will take to read. Climate change, COVID and China are consistently the stories at the top so are semi-permanent)

🌏 Climate change & biodiversity destruction

• Yet more worrying numbers. It’s clear we are on a dangerous path.

Dr Will Hobbs, a sea ice scientist at the University of Tasmania, said that since April the rate of growth in Antarctica’s sea ice had been “very, very slow”.

“This isn’t just a big change from the average, but also from the previous record,” he said. “In May it was pretty obvious we were in for something spectacular.”

He said sea ice losses in the Ross Sea region were likely down to winds that had pushed the ice against the continent, bringing warm air. But weather couldn’t explain why ice was lost around the rest of the continent.

• An interesting joint venture.

In a first-of-its-kind partnership between a major industrial company and a fusion startup,

Nucor NUE -2.26%decrease; red down pointing triangle

and Helion Energy plan to develop a 500-megawatt fusion power plant that would be placed at one of Nucor’s U.S. steel mills by 2030, the companies said. 

That amount is enough electricity to power a few hundred thousand homes, about as much as a conventional power plant. Nucor is investing $35 million in Helion, which is backed by OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman.

The deal is a bet on fusion, a technology that can seem more science fiction than science and hasn’t yet produced electricity. 

🇨🇳 China / Taiwan

• Taiwan has launched the first of 8 domestically produced diesel-electric submarines.

  Some analysis here:

• Binkov looks at Chinese jet production:

🇺🇦 Ukraine / Russia

• A good summary of perceptions of Ukrainian success (or lack thereof).

At some point, vulnerabilities might begin to appear in the Russian lines and present Ukraine with an opportunity for spectacular victories. Such an opportunity previously arose with Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive in 2022. Similarly in 1918, the Allies finally could conduct a successful massed attack during the Hundred Days offensive when the German army began to collapse. Any attempt to conduct large-scale maneuver before then would be suicidal. 

• Ukraine has developed a drone submarine. Who knows where it will turn up.

“By operating below the waterline, UUVs have an obvious advantage in terms of stealth,” wrote Scott Savitz, a senior engineer at the RAND Corporation in California. “Moreover, striking below the waterline can be especially damaging.”

Worse, the Black Sea Fleet isn’t ready to detect and intercept small UUVs. The first indication drone subs are attacking, say, the Black Sea Fleet’s Crimean anchorage in Sevastopol, could be a series of underwater explosions.

❤️ How a heart starts to pulse

Interesting video. (3 mins)

🧪 PFAS

This newsletter has explored the world of forever chemicals on several occasions but this article from Bloomberg by Esmé e Deprez is one of the more disturbing. Read the whole thing. (7,000 words - 24 mins)

In essence a new source of PFAS/PFOA has been identified and it affects an enormous range of products. As far as I can tell, efforts are underway to ban this source in the EU by 2027.

Although Inhance says it can treat multiple types of plastic, including low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and polyphenylene ether (PPE), it mostly fluorinates HDPE. Used to make everything from milk jugs and cutting boards to underground pipes and toys, HDPE is versatile, usually opaque and more rigid than the average soda bottle, for example, which is typically made with polyethylene terephthalate, or PET, and cannot be fluorinated. It’s unclear what share of HDPE produced every year gets fluorinated. Inhance has indicated that it treats 25 million pounds of “plastic packaging articles” annually, which would likely represent a sliver of total HDPE production.

Still, fluorinated plastics are ubiquitous. Inhance says it does business with more than 175 plastics suppliers and more than 500 brands. As of 2018, according to the presentation seen by Businessweek, the agricultural chemical industry generated the biggest share of sales, at 40%, while the consumer market accounted for 16%.

“Our first initial thought was: It’s everywhere, so we need to pay attention to this one, because this is literally going inside people’s homes”

During an April visit to the lobby of Inhance’s facility in Allentown, Pennsylvania, a shelf displayed dozens of empty containers, with signage indicating at least some had been fluorinated. Among them were containers for shampoo, stain remover, gasoline, hand-cleaning wipes, hair-thickening oil, nail polish remover and juice. A sign extolled the benefits of fluorination for household and beauty applications, including food storage, laundry detergent, dish soap, liquid foundation and face moisturizers.

🧠 Fairy circles

Fairy rings/circles turning up…

Findings based on satellite imagery published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences raise the possibility that fairy circles are significantly more widespread, occurring in up to 263 sites in 15 countries across three continents.

“We discovered fairy circle locations in many other places that we didn’t know existed before, because most of the work on this topic has been carried out in just two countries, Namibia and Australia,” said Fernando Maestre, an ecologist at the University of Alicante in Spain and an author of the study.

🔭 Big telescopes

Later this decade the enormous Giant Magellan telescope should have first light in Chile. Along with the JWST it will give enormous new capabilities for observers.

The 7th and final mirror has been cast.

"We will have a unique combination of capabilities for studying planets at high spatial and spectral resolution, both of which are key to determining if a planet has a rocky composition like our Earth, if it contains liquid water and if its atmosphere contains the right combination of molecules to indicate the presence of life," she added.

Philosophy Corner (a journey through thinking about thinking every week)

(A serialised section that started with Greek Tragedy and moved to philosophy. Something to spark ideas. Feel free to go backwards!).

This is a very good overview on cognitive biases by Charlie Munger. (1994) (75 mins)

Here is a shorter summary version.

Documentary

(A good thing to watch - also serialised - so feel free to go back through past editions!)

Podcast(s)

(The best stuff I’ve listened to, or been recommended by subscribers)

• Mike Martin on outcomes in Ukraine (31 mins)

• Newsletter subscriber Donie O’Sullivan was interviewed on both Katie Hannon’s show and on Qanon Anonymous about his CNN documentary on Negative 48 and conspiracy theories generally.

• War on the rocks - as always. (31 mins)

Still in my tabs

(Or stuff I haven’t read yet, but looks promising)

Why rings of RNA could be the next blockbuster drug

Academics need to think harder about the purpose of their disciplines and whether some of those should come to an end

The Republican Delusion Machine

15 ClimateTech Companies to Watch

Tiny ‘quantum dot’ particles win chemistry Nobel

Newsletter 83

Drones, blowing up dams and the godfather of solar PV

Hi folks,

This newsletter has been on an extended hiatus due to work, but I’m gradually getting the ducks back in a row to reset. This edition is a little shorter than most but it covers all the interesting stuff I’ve spotted over the past week or two.

I’m aiming for cadence to improve into the autumn and winter with more extended and improved editions. This week is a little heavy on videos - but lots in the Tabs section for longer reading also!

Gavin

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Reading list - the best stuff to read

(The best reads I’ve come across, with excerpts, links, authors and how long it will take to read. Climate change, COVID and China are consistently the stories at the top so are semi-permanent)

🌏 Climate change & biodiversity destruction

This is very interesting. Microsoft has put up a job ad for a nuclear SMR manager.

We're looking for a Principal Program Manager, Nuclear Technology, who will be responsible for maturing and implementing a global Small Modular Reactor (SMR) and microreactor energy strategy.  

This senior position is tasked with leading the technical assessment for the integration of SMR and microreactors to power the datacenters that the Microsoft Cloud and AI reside on. They will maintain a clear and adaptable roadmap for the technology’s integration, diligently select and manage technology partners and solutions, and constantly evaluate the business implications of progress and implementation. 

The ideal candidate will have experience in the energy industry and a deep understanding of nuclear technologies and regulatory affairs. This role will also be responsible for research and developing other precommercial energy technologies. 

🇨🇳 China / Taiwan

Things are really busy in this area right no. Worth watching this WSJ summary.

Also see: https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1704286902180839895

Binkov looks at the drone situation in this area. (11 mins)

This is a long speech about US-China relations and how they may evolve - from a US perspective. (60 mins)

An interesting look at hypothetical scenario of blowing up the Three Gorges Dam. (14 mins)

🇺🇦 Ukraine / Russia

A long overview of Russian defence production (70 mins).

A good overview of just by how much Poland’s military is growing. (14 mins)

🚆 Public infrastructure

An excellent overview of design decisions in the Netherlands (17 mins).

🧠 Drones

A detailed look s the future of air warfare (67 mins)

Philosophy Corner (a journey through thinking about thinking every week)

(A serialised section that started with Greek Tragedy and moved to philosophy. Something to spark ideas. Feel free to go backwards!).

Documentary

(A good thing to watch - also serialised - so feel free to go back through past editions!)

I recommend watching the new Netflix documentary Ordinary Men, based on the book by Christopher R. Browning. It explores some very dark aspects to human behaviour - involving ego, shame and groupthink.

Podcast(s)

(The best stuff I’ve listened to, or been recommended by subscribers)

1. The godfather of solar. (30 mins. This goes into the history of Solar PV tech and the companies behind it, as well as where it’s going. Very interesting indeed.

2. Falling for Fusion (25 mins) This is from back in May - but worth a listen.

3. A summer of climate reckoning. (64 mins).

4. Pulling energy out of nothing? (19 mins). This one blew my mind and reminds you of matter → energy teleportation in Star Trek.

Still in my tabs

(Or stuff I haven’t read yet, but looks promising)

A Fully Autonomous Ship's Perilous Journey at Sea

How to train your jellyfish: brainless box jellies learn from experience

The Man Who Trapped Us in Databases - Hank Asher was a drug smuggler with a head for numbers — until he figured out how to turn Americans’ private information into a big business.

Spreading rock dust on farms seems at first like an odd way to lock up carbon. (see this Irish startup)

A century after the trial against ‘Ulysses’, we must revisit the civil liberties arguments of its defender, Morris Ernst

How Mark Milley Held the Line (Long read)

NASA readies for dramatic return of asteroid sample to Earth

In a first, researchers have engineered marine bacteria to destroy plastics in seawater

Tucker Carlson, the American Face of Authoritarian Propaganda

Trump’s Open Plot to Break the Federal Government

Does Sam Altman Know What He’s Creating?

Newsletter 82

Slowing down AI, China/Taiwan tensions and good vs bad writing

Hi, I’m Gavin. This is my experimental newsletter that explores thinking - how we might think better and learn together as we do so.

I explore several key topics through the lens of several core themes: systems thinking, scenario planning, trends, and cross-disciplinary innovation. These often relate to key issues: climate change, pandemics, astronomy, physics, health, history, philosophy, culture, rocketry, conflict, the impact of technology on society and more (lol!). With a larger question behind it all: how do we progress and how do we progress better?

I hope you like where we go. (1,262! - welcome all new arrivals)

Gavin

PS: if you like the newsletter please share it! (And I always appreciate tweets about it too!) 🙏

If you support this newsletter and really like it you can also become a paid subscriber - you get nothing different except the satisfaction of knowing that you’re supporting this irregular (weekly) missive!

---

Reading list - the best stuff to read

(The best reads I’ve come across, with excerpts, links, authors and how long it will take to read. Climate change, Ukraine and China are the stories at the top so are semi-permanent)

🌏 Climate change & biodiversity destruction

• A really interesting look at rust batteries (or iron-air). Also see pod recommendations.

Woodford then turned to an unlikely source for inspiration: the disposable hand warmers he used on cold days growing up in Pennsylvania. Crushing these little sacks filled with crystals begins a process of rusting iron—it essentially reacts with oxygen to form iron oxide—that’s sped up with chemicals. The reaction releases energy in the form of heat. Woodford and Chiang, Form’s science brains, thought that with the right setup they could use the same reaction to release energy as electrons instead.

• Finland has finally turned on its new nuclear power station. While Germany has ended its use of nuclear energy.

Construction of the 1.6 gigawatt (GW) reactor, Finland's first new nuclear plant in more than four decades and Europe's first in 16 years, began in 2005. The plant was originally due to open four years later, but was plagued by technical issues.

• We need to draw down carbon—not just stop emitting it

So how can we move forward to develop and scale carbon removal solutions without creating a risk of delaying the needed cuts in climate pollution? 

We should start by being skeptical about any portrayal of carbon removal as a silver bullet that avoids the need for deep emissions cuts. We should ensure that any net-zero commitments from governments and corporations assign a substantially greater role for emissions reduction than carbon removal. We should be wary of any modeling that bases high use of future carbon removal on the idea that spending money to tackle climate change in the future is easier than spending money today. And as a simple rule of thumb, we should aim for a world where we reach net zero by cutting more than 90% of current emissions and removing less than 10%. 

🇨🇳 China / Taiwan

A note to readers: it’s become increasingly difficult to track all of the developments in relation to this subject. There are almost daily announcements throughout the APAC region (many of them military ones) that in one way or another will have impact (or help lead to) future conflict in the region. This is not a good sign: when you are doing pattern recognition and try to scenario plan, a plethora of new developments is a pattern in itself. I am not optimistic that conflict will be avoided and, if anything, conflict could arise sooner than previously forecast (ie before the latter half of the decade).

I might need a “still in my tabs” just for APAC developments.

• A really good long read on how China has tried to steal secrets from US companies. (There’s also an audio version (54 mins)).

The messages in Xu’s iCloud account enabled investigators to make another damning discovery. Xu had helped coordinate a cyberespionage campaign that targeted several aviation technology companies. Those attacks — described in a report by CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity firm — started in 2010, shortly after the state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) announced that it had chosen a joint venture between G.E. Aviation and Safran to supply a custom-made engine for China’s first domestically manufactured commercial airliner, the C919. The plan behind the campaign, which was directed against Honeywell, Capstone Turbine and Safran, among others, became clear only later when security researchers connected the dots. “When I started putting all these victims together — I was like, OK, these are all component manufacturers for different pieces of the C919,” Adam Kozy, a cybersecurity expert who runs the security firm SinaCyber and was the lead author of the CrowdStrike report, told me. Although COMAC was prepared to procure components needed to build the aircraft from these companies, the Chinese government was evidently also working to steal intellectual property from those suppliers in order to make domestic manufacturing possible in China, according to the report.

• How to Avoid a War With China

• What’s Really Going on Between Russia and China

🇺🇦 Ukraine / Russia

A note to readers: the leaks of intelligence gave greater detail than we had previously known about the three army corps being created in Ukraine to begin the Spring counteroffensive.

We now know to some degree the composition of the 9 brigades being created, and what they are equipped with. In particular two brigades appear to be “tip of the spear” brigades composed of only Western equipment and lacking artillery support. The goal will be to break through Russian lines, and force them into a lacklustre retreat. The wide availability to fight at night could also be key for a Ukrainian success.

The timeline for the beginning of an offensive - likely mainly in the south in the direction of Berdyansk and/or Tokmak - is expected any time between late April and late May.

Ukraine’s Best Chance - A Successful Offensive Could End the War With Russia

There are different ways to imagine the less-than-ideal outcomes, but consider two. In the first, Russia would retreat to pre-invasion battle lines, retaining Crimea and the land in the Donbas that the two pro-Moscow statelets occupied before the war. In the second, Ukraine would recover all of Zaporizhzhia, and therefore the Azov Sea littoral, and Kherson, including the Russian-occupied segment of the Black Sea coast. Russia would retain Crimea and much of the Donbas—Luhansk Province and the part of Donetsk Province that it controls—but relinquish the land corridor to the peninsula it now has through the southern parts of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Provinces.

Even the latter scenario would amount to a significant Ukrainian victory. Putin’s plan to install a quisling government in Kyiv and partition Ukraine by annexing its north, east, and south, including the Black and Azov Sea coastlines, would have failed. So would his bogus attempt last September to annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Provinces, three of which he only partly controlled at the time. Ukraine would retain approximately 93 percent of its pre-invasion land area and about 89 percent of its pre-2014 territory. Although a settlement along these lines would fall well short of Kyiv’s ideal denouement, it would spare Ukraine further death and destruction, allow it to proceed with the mammoth task of postwar reconstruction, and enable millions of refugees and internally displaced people (together, nearly 14 million) to return home.

Binkov has a good analysis on Ukrainian air defence and missile numbers, based on recent leaks of US intelligence documents. (20 mins)

This is a very good detailed analysis of the battle for Hostomel airport right at the start of the war. Contains some footage I had not seen before. (22 mins)

This is an excellent discussion from two of the best Ukrainian analysts, watch the whole thing:

🤓 Augmented reality

Apple plans to launch its new Reality headset in June - its first big new product line since 2008.

The mixed-reality headset will be the star of the show, but the annual conference will be packed with other products too. That includes new Mac laptops and the biggest update to the Apple Watch’s software since the first version was introduced in 2015, I’m told. Altogether, the company is planning to unveil: the Reality headset, the first major new Apple product category in nearly a decade a new xrOS operating system and software development kit new MacBooks iOS 17 iPadOS 17 macOS 14 a major watchOS 10 update

🧠 Slowing down AI

A really good long read on the AI “race”.

Unfortunately, I think the race will continue. It will likely take a major misuse event — a catastrophe — to wake up the public and governments. I personally plan to continue to invest in AI start-ups that focus on alignment and safety or which are developing narrowly useful AI. But I can no longer invest in those that further contribute to this dangerous race. As a small shareholder in Anthropic, which is conducting similar research to DeepMind and OpenAI, I have grappled with these questions. The company has invested substantially in alignment, with 42 per cent of its team working on that area in 2021. But ultimately it is locked in the same race. For that reason, I would support significant regulation by governments and a practical plan to transform these companies into a Cern-like organisation.

Bonus: also checkout John Oliver on AI

Second bonus:

✍️ On writing

I really enjoyed this exploration of good vs bad writing, using Andor (excellent show!) and Obi-Wan Kenobi (not great!) to compare: (20 mins)

Philosophy Corner (a journey through thinking about thinking every week)

(A serialised section that started with Greek Tragedy and moved to philosophy. Something to spark ideas. Feel free to go backwards!).

On hiatus!

Documentary

(A good thing to watch - also serialised - so feel free to go back through past editions!)

We’re on Part 2 of Auschwitz The Nazis and the Final Solution.

Podcast(s)

(The best stuff I’ve listened to, or been recommended by subscribers)

1. This new podcast had a good episode on the future of energy. (59 mins)

2. A very good and detailed discussion on the semiconductor industry (inc the geopolitics of Taiwan’s role in semiconductors). (57 mins) (Bonus: also read I Saw the Face of God in a TSMC Semiconductor Factory)

3. There are two good recent episodes of Geopolitics Decanted. First is a discussion about China/Russia (58 mins) and the second about Taiwan and its defences. (63 mins).

4. There was a fascinating look at Form Energy’s Iron-air battery technology. (25 mins)

5. A good discussion with Aric Toler, the key journalist (together with the NYT visual investigations team run by a subscriber to this newsletter, Malachy Browne) who uncovered the alleged source of US intelligence leaks. (48 mins)

6. The New Scientist pod looks at several subject, including figuring out what it will take to feed bigger global human populations, and how to balance that with biodiversity destruction.

Still in my tabs

(Or stuff I haven’t read yet, but looks promising)

A New Approach to Computation Reimagines Artificial Intelligence

How Fox and Murdoch are destroying US democrac

Implantable device, smaller than a grain of rice, shown to shrink pancreatic tumors

Animal Mutation Rates Reveal Traits That Speed Evolution

Two studies make a strong case for nuclear power: less pollution, smaller footprint.

SpaceX will try to launch most powerful rocket ever Monday

What is freedom? 15-minute city conspiracies show just how little some understand it

Solar panels handle heat better when they’re combined with crops

Newsletter 81

Roman concrete, Crimean history and SMRs.

Hi, I’m Gavin. This is my experimental newsletter that explores thinking - how we might think better and learn together as we do so.

I explore several key topics through the lens of several core themes: systems thinking, scenario planning, trends, and cross-disciplinary innovation. These often relate to key issues: climate change, pandemics, astronomy, physics, health, history, philosophy, culture, rocketry, conflict, the impact of technology on society and more (lol!). With a larger question behind it all: how do we progress and how do we progress better?

I hope you like where we go. (1,256! - welcome all new arrivals)

Gavin

PS: if you like the newsletter please share it! (And I always appreciate tweets about it too!) 🙏

If you support this newsletter and really like it you can also become a paid subscriber - you get nothing different except the satisfaction of knowing that you’re supporting this current weekly missive!

---

Reading list - the best stuff to read

(The best reads I’ve come across, with excerpts, links, authors and how long it will take to read. Climate change, Ukraine/Russia and China are consistently the stories at the top so are semi-permanent)

🌏 Climate change & biodiversity destruction

• Photos from space show 11,000 beavers are wreaking havoc on the Alaskan tundra as savagely as wildfire

So he was floored when he saw beaver-engineering projects completely transforming landscapes across Alaska.

"It was like hitting the ecosystem over the head with a hammer," he said.

The severity and speed of beavers' footprint on the landscape, as seen from space, is more akin to wildfire, Tape said.

• The US NRC has certified an SMR.

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued its final rule in the Federal Register to certify NuScale Power’s small modular reactor. The company’s power module becomes the first SMR design certified by the NRC and just the seventh reactor design cleared for use in the United States.

The published final rule making allows utilities to reference NuScale’s SMR design when applying for a combined license to build and operate a reactor. The design is an advanced light-water SMR with each power module capable of generating 50 megawatts of emissions-free electricity.

Learn more about SMRs here (13 mins):

• This is a lovely documentary on Walruses affected by climate change (25 mins). It’s quite silent - and there are heartbreaking scenes, particularly the orphan walrus. Towards the end there is an explanation of his work.

🇨🇳 China / Taiwan

New alliances are emerging and new weapons systems are being built.

On his tour of Group of Seven countries last week, which came after the biggest overhaul of Japan’s security policy since World War II, Kishida told French President Emmanuel Macron that the security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific were indivisible. He signed a deal on mutual troop access with UK premier Rishi Sunak and agreed with Italian leader Giorgia Meloni to upgrade defense ties.

Japan’s alliance with Washington—complete with its “nuclear umbrella”—remains the cornerstone of its strategy, and US President Joe Biden endorsed the country’s more robust security strategy in a meeting with Kishida at the White House on Friday. Yet Japan’s deepening unease about the dangers in its neighborhood has prompted a fresh push to build a bulwark of other partnerships.

Japan’s Weapons Buildup to Bolster U.S. Efforts to Counter China

Japan’s plans to spend billions of dollars on missiles and other weapons to deter China and North Korea herald a new phase of military competition in Asia.

🇺🇦 Ukraine / Russia

We’re entering a new phase of the war soon. In 2023 we will likely see a further mobilisation announcement by Russia - perhaps putting the country on a firmer and larger war footing. This will no doubt alarm NATO generally, firmly placing us in a more risky world than we were in last year. The battles we may see will be unparalleled in nature since the 1940s. And the size of armies will also be large - approaching potentially 1 million on each side by the end of this year.

Given the recent gifting of large amounts of equipment from the West for Ukraine, including M2 Bradleys¹, Marder IFVs, AMX-10s, Stryker IFVs², Challenger 2s, CV90s³ and more - and instensified training on combined arms offensives it seems that a large Ukrainian offensive is planned for the Spring and Summer (and the West realises just how big and potentially long the war is going to be).

The attack will likely happen regardless of whether or not Leopard 2 tanks are delivered in time - but their delivery would increase the chances of Ukrainian success.

This attack will likely come first in the South (perhaps combined with other operations in the northeast), towards Melitopol, with potential feints to the east and west of Melitopol. As discussed by Sergii Grabskyi on the Geopolitics Decanted podcast (see pod recommendations), there is a scenario where Ukrainian forces aim for the Azov Sea via Melitopol, and perhaps even further into Crimea itself.

He mentions three prior invasions of Crimea, but it’s probably worth looking at the last two (excluding of course the 2014 annexation by Russia). These were the Germany army taking Crimea in 1941/42 and the Soviet army taking it back in 1944. It’s worth understanding how those played out. I recommend this two-parter:

Binkov also has a reasonable analysis (17 mins)

And one last one. If you’re wondering what modern conventional warfare looks and sounds like, here is a video showing the Ukrainian recapture of Novoselivsky at the end of last year. Any offensives this year will be larger, with more modern equipment. Warning: graphic content. (12 mins)

Bonus: The Russo-Ukrainian war ten months in: taking stock

🏛️ History - Rome

Why was Roman concrete so durable? It seems we now know why.

Previously disregarded as merely evidence of sloppy mixing practices, or poor-quality raw materials, the new study suggests that these tiny lime clasts gave the concrete a previously unrecognized self-healing capability. “The idea that the presence of these lime clasts was simply attributed to low quality control always bothered me,” says Masic. “If the Romans put so much effort into making an outstanding construction material, following all of the detailed recipes that had been optimized over the course of many centuries, why would they put so little effort into ensuring the production of a well-mixed final product? There has to be more to this story.”

Philosophy Corner (a journey through thinking about thinking every week)

(A serialised section that started with Greek Tragedy and moved to philosophy. Something to spark ideas. Feel free to go backwards!).

On hiatus - for now.

Documentary

(A good thing to watch - also serialised - so feel free to go back through past editions!)

It’s worth watching the BBC series: Auschwitz: The Nazis and the Final Solution. I just returned from a trip there. One of the guests interviewed - Oskar Groening - was later prosecuted and sentenced. He died at the age of 96, before serving his sentence.

Part one is here. (47 mins)

Podcast(s)

(The best stuff I’ve listened to, or been recommended by subscribers)

1. Geopolitics Decanted - why Ukraine may take Crimea next. (60 mins)

2. This is a really interesting discussion on rule of law and wealth inequality. It goes into some depth, but is worth it. (94 mins)

3. I learned more about an industry I knew nothing about in 52 mins than I thought possible. EVs, logging and large trucks.

4. An interview with Brian Cox (the Succession one). (67 mins)

5. The real story of how a fossil-fuel company became a wind giant (31 mins)

Still in my tabs

(Or stuff I haven’t read yet, but looks promising)

Standard Model of Cosmology Survives a Telescope’s Surprising Finds

What the Longest Study on Human Happiness Found Is the Key to a Good Life

First Rendering Of Japan’s Ballistic Missile Defense Ship Concept Released

This Is What a Nuclear-Powered Future Might Look Like

Trapped in the Trenches in Ukraine

UK economy ‘not prepared’ for fallout if China invades Taiwan

Russia Has Built Its First Production Batch Of Poseidon Nuclear Torpedoes: Report

Education should matter to philosophy - what took so long?

Ripples in fabric of universe may reveal start of time

How Ukraine became a testbed for Western weapons and battlefield innovation

Confident or shy, our temperament is mostly baked-in from birth. But how that influences our lives is up for grabs

SpaceX reveals project called "Starshield" — a satellite project "designed for government use”

1. Can the M2 Bradley Make a Difference in Ukraine?

2. Stryker Combat Vehicles Will Be Headed To Ukraine From U.S.

3. This Is The CV90 Fighting Vehicle Sweden Is Sending To Ukraine

Newsletter 80

"$2.5tn Taiwan shock", doomsday scenarios and US fighter jet production

Hi, I’m Gavin. This is my experimental newsletter that explores thinking - how we might think better and learn together as we do so.

I explore several key topics through the lens of several core themes: systems thinking, scenario planning, trends, and cross-disciplinary innovation. These often relate to key issues: climate change, pandemics, astronomy, physics, health, history, philosophy, culture, rocketry, conflict, the impact of technology on society and more (lol!). With a larger question behind it all: how do we progress and how do we progress better?

I hope you like where we go. (1,027! 1,190 - welcome all new arrivals)

Gavin

PS: if you like the newsletter please share it! (And I always appreciate tweets about it too!) 🙏

If you support this newsletter and really like it you can also become a paid subscriber - you get nothing different except the satisfaction of knowing that you’re supporting this current weekly missive!

---

Reading list - the best stuff to read

(The best reads I’ve come across, with excerpts, links, authors and how long it will take to read. Climate change, COVID and China are consistently the stories at the top so are semi-permanent)

🌏 Climate change & biodiversity destruction

The World’s Most-Visited Glaciers Could Soon Be Gone

Fifty of UNESCO’s World Heritage sites are home to glaciers, and 18,600 glaciers have been identified at those sites. One third of the glaciers in these sites are “condemned to disappear by 2050,” according to the report.

“These are projections,” said Tales Carvalho Resende, a UNESCO researcher from Brazil and one of the authors of the report. “We hope we are wrong, of course, but these are projections based on hard science.”

The glaciers will disappear regardless of any “climate scenarios,” he said. But the remaining two-thirds of the glaciers in the World Heritage sites could still be saved if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the report.

How to move a country: Fiji’s radical plan to escape rising sea levels

For many Pacific people, burial sites remain the biggest obstacle to relocation. The hardest people to move are the dead. When relocating, villagers face a choice of either leaving behind the bones of ancestors, or exhuming them and taking them to the new site. Either choice is deeply traumatic.

In a tiny settlement of half a dozen houses named Togoru, about 45 minutes drive from Suva, the local cemetery is already underwater. At high tide, fish swim around the gravestones of Lavenia McGoon’s ancestors, but McGoon, who is 70, wants to stay. According to residents, the settlement has been there since the early 1800s. Togoru is small, with about 20 people living there. Many residents come and go – some have lived and worked elsewhere in Fiji before returning, or work in other parts of the country during the week and return for weekends and holidays.

Carbon emissions hit new high: warning from COP27

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to increase 1% in 2022, hitting a new record of 37.5 billion tonnes, scientists announced today at the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP27) in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. If the trend continues, humanity could pump enough CO2 into the atmosphere to warm Earth to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures in just nine years. The 2015 Paris climate agreement set this aspirational limit, seeking to avoid the most serious consequences for the planet.

“Nine years is not very long,” says Corinne Le Quéré, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, UK, and a member of the Global Carbon Project, which conducted the analysis. There is clearly no sign of the kind of decrease that is needed to meet international goals, she says, and even with aggressive action, climate models suggest the world is likely to at least temporarily cross the 1.5 °C threshold sometime in the 2030s.

🇨🇳 🇹🇼 China / Taiwan

This section of the newsletter has been around as a permanent feature for quite a while now. There has been an uptick in the tempo of signals related to a future potential conflict over Taiwan. This week’s links are no different. So I’m marking this as something to pay even more attention to in 2023.

1. US warns Europe a conflict over Taiwan could cause global economic shock (3 mins)

The state department has shared research with partners and allies that estimates that a Chinese blockade of Taiwan would spark $2.5tn in economic losses, according to six people familiar with the material, which was commissioned from the research firm Rhodium Group.

The stark warning has been shared with European Commission and European government officials, as the US and partners begin to think about how they could use sanctions against China over any military action against Taiwan. Washington is using the report to stress to European countries that a Taiwan conflict would have significant implications for them.

Two officials said the US and EU had begun talks about how to prepare for a possible conflict over Taiwan. The Financial Times earlier this year reported that the US had held contingency planning talks with the UK for the first time.

Two people familiar with the US-EU discussions said some officials believed that preparing contingency plans, and communicating them publicly, could become part of a strategy to deter China.

Some US and European officials believe the spectre of huge global economic damage from a Taiwan conflict is necessary to rally international support for deterring China. The US has also used the example of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to stress the need to consider contingencies.

One senior EU official compared the sharing of the report with the US move last year to distribute intelligence on Russia’s military build-up around Ukraine, when some EU capitals were dismissive of the idea that Vladimir Putin would invade. “We learned a lesson with that,” the official added.

2. Taiwan Wants China to Think Twice About an Invasion (25 mins)

“What I want to achieve is to make Taiwan more resilient in economic and military terms,” Tsai had told me. It’s possible to look at this kind of gradual marshaling of society with trepidation. Coupled with the lack of a diplomatic opening to China, there’s a momentum that risks pulling in the direction of conflict. But in Tsai’s attitude, I sensed that resilience serves many purposes. A society that embeds digital literacy and emergency preparedness among its citizens is stronger, just as an economy that isn’t overly reliant on the giant market next door will grow on a broader foundation. Even the effort to build a more progressive democracy comes into play, both in terms of investing domestic constituencies in the government and in forging friendships with democracies abroad.

In the end, Tsai’s agenda is born of necessity. “When we’re strong, resilient, trustworthy, and a good partner,” Tsai said, “people will see our values. That makes us worthy of support.”

3. Australia’s 60 Minutes did a 30 min look at a future war over Taiwan. Worth the watch.

4. Why Japan Is Gearing Up for Possible War With China (5 mins)

In Tokyo, as in Washington, opinions differ regarding when the risk of war will be greatest, and even whether Xi would hazard everything in a high-stakes military gamble. Some officials told me that Xi’s recent personnel reforms — which included placing a veteran of China’s last foreign conflict, against Vietnam in 1979, and a former commander of Chinese military forces opposite Taiwan in the two top spots on the Central Military Commission — amount to a creation of a “war council.” Others counter that the People’s Liberation Army will lack key capabilities necessary to invade Taiwan, such as sufficient amphibious landing craft, for years to come.

But there is little debate the country must brace for trouble, because China taking Taiwan by force would be disastrous for Japan.

If Taiwan fell, the islands at the far southwestern end of the Japanese archipelago might become indefensible. China could constrict Japan’s vital trade routes, increase the pressure around the disputed Senkaku Islands, and otherwise coerce its historic rival.

This is why the Tokyo government has stated — as strongly as it can, given Japan’s post-1945 aversion to the use of force — that it would not stand by while Taiwan was subjugated. Already a serious regional military power, Japan is moving rapidly to strengthen its capabilities for deterrence and defense.

Japan plans to nearly double defense spending by 2027. It is turning some of the southwestern islands into strongpoints studded with anti-ship missiles and air defenses; it reportedly has plans to use its high-quality submarine fleet to bottle up the Chinese navy. Tokyo is also moving to acquire American Tomahawk cruise missiles and other “counterstrike” capabilities that could target the Chinese mainland.

5. Taiwan rallies drone makers to prepare military for China threat

“Our military has so far failed to present a clear concept for the use of unmanned aerial vehicles in war fighting and to capitalise on our private sector’s significant capabilities in that field,” said a senior official in Tsai’s administration. “The war in Ukraine has highlighted the urgency of preparing for conflict in the Taiwan Strait and the crucial role drones can play in such a conflict.”

Under the plan, which is backed with public funds of up to NT$50bn (US$1.6bn) over three years, the government aims to organise Taiwanese private drone makers into a “national team” to develop unmanned aerial vehicle systems for several specific missions in a cross-strait war scenario. The government wants the drone makers to start receiving orders by July next year, according to five people familiar with the project.

Several Taiwanese companies make commercial drones, but the military has barely tapped those resources, mainly over concerns the private sector could leak military secrets to China and because the military has yet to present concrete concepts for wartime use of UAVs, government officials and analysts said.

“Our military is still relatively backward in their use of drones,” said Chen Po-hung, a policy analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a think-tank backed by the defence ministry. “Another main problem is that it has not clearly defined the missions for different UAVs.”

🇺🇦 Ukraine / Russia

1. Norwegian Police detains son of close Putin ally for flying drone at Svalbard. It’s always worth keeping an eye on potential hybrid threats. We looked at this incident in a previous newsletter but the details from this October report are interesting.

A judge at the Western Finnmark District Court on Tuesday ordered the son of one of Vladimir Putin’s closest allies placed in custody for two weeks after request by the police. The police asked for detention based on the risk of evasion, while investigations continue. Andrey Yakunin is the son of Vladimir Yakunin, former president of Russian Railways. “The man has Russian and British citizenship and is charged with violating the Sanction Act §4 for flying a drone in Norwegian territory at Svalbard,” said Police Prosecutor Anja Mikkelsen Indbjør to the Barents Observer.

2. A good summary (65 mins)

🧠 Trauma

Can early intervention mitigate risks of PTSD? (4 mins)

🌍 Mapping doomsday scenarios

A guide to contemporary doomsday scenarios — from the threats you know about to the ones you never think of.

I’m actually not all that worried about an asteroid impact. Asteroids are way down at No. 8 on my list of Top 10 Existential Worries (a list I just typed up at the urging of an editor, and which I present simply as a discussion tool):

10. Solar storm or gamma-ray burst.

9. Supervolcano eruption.

8. Asteroid impact.

7. Naturally emergent, or maliciously engineered, pandemic plant pathogen affecting staple crops.

6. Naturally emergent, or maliciously engineered, pandemic human pathogen.

5. Orwellian dystopia. Totalitarianism. Endless war paraded as peace. The human spirit crushed. Not a world you’d want to live in.

4. Cascading technological failures due to cyberattack, reckless development of artificial intelligence and/or some other example of complex systems failing in complex ways.

3. Nuclear war (may jump soon to No. 1).

2. Environmental catastrophe from climate change and other desecrations of the natural world.

1. Threat X. The unknown unknown. Something dreadful but not even imagined. The creature that lives under the bed.

🧮 The Most Important Algorithm Of All Time

The Fast Fourier Transform is used everywhere but it has a fascinating origin story that could have ended the nuclear arms race. (26 mins)

✈️ Could today's US produce masses of fighters like it did in WW2?

A good exploration by Binkov. (14 mins).

Philosophy Corner (a journey through thinking about thinking every week)

(A serialised section that started with Greek Tragedy and moved to philosophy. Something to spark ideas. Feel free to go backwards!).

On hiatus!

Documentary

(A good thing to watch - also serialised - so feel free to go back through past editions!)

World-renowned author and professor Bryan Magee and Berkeley philosopher of language John Searle discuss the question: "How does language relate to thought and to reality?" Searle explores the use of language to clarify experience as fundamental to the acquisition of knowledge. He then describes the various uses of language in the philosophies of Plato, Descartes, Frege, Mills, and others. (44 mins)

Podcast(s)

(The best stuff I’ve listened to, or been recommended by subscribers)

1. Idea flow with Jeremy Utley (72 mins)

2. Can climate change be solved without COP? with Patricia Espinosa (29 mins)

3. Keys Lessons for Taiwan from the War in Ukraine (46 mins)

4. The Problem With Plastics: Could New Recycling Tech Help the Planet? (21 mins)

5. Fire ships, maritime economics and balanced fleets (48 mins)

6. How Putin’s Reign Could End (53 mins)

7. Keys Lessons for Taiwan from the War in Ukraine (46 mins)

Still in my tabs

(Or stuff I haven’t read yet, but looks promising)

New Chip Expands the Possibilities for AI

Tattoos found on ancient Egyptian women appear to ask for protection during childbirth

She was convicted of killing her four children. Could a gene mutation set her free?

Inside Alphabet X’s new effort to combat climate change with seagrass

America Can Contain China With an Alliance of Five

Watch Octopuses Throw Things at Each Other

Chipmaker TSMC plans Arizona factory expansion (Decoupling from Taiwan)