Newsletter 81

Roman concrete, Crimean history and SMRs.

Jan 22, 2023

Hi, I’m Gavin. This is my experimental newsletter that explores thinking - how we might think better and learn together as we do so.

I explore several key topics through the lens of several core themes: systems thinking, scenario planning, trends, and cross-disciplinary innovation. These often relate to key issues: climate change, pandemics, astronomy, physics, health, history, philosophy, culture, rocketry, conflict, the impact of technology on society and more (lol!). With a larger question behind it all: how do we progress and how do we progress better?

I hope you like where we go. (1,256! - welcome all new arrivals)

Gavin

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Reading list - the best stuff to read

(The best reads I’ve come across, with excerpts, links, authors and how long it will take to read. Climate change, Ukraine/Russia and China are consistently the stories at the top so are semi-permanent)

🌏 Climate change & biodiversity destruction

Photos from space show 11,000 beavers are wreaking havoc on the Alaskan tundra as savagely as wildfire

So he was floored when he saw beaver-engineering projects completely transforming landscapes across Alaska.
"It was like hitting the ecosystem over the head with a hammer," he said.
The severity and speed of beavers' footprint on the landscape, as seen from space, is more akin to wildfire, Tape said.

The US NRC has certified an SMR.

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued its final rule in the Federal Register to certify NuScale Power’s small modular reactor. The company’s power module becomes the first SMR design certified by the NRC and just the seventh reactor design cleared for use in the United States.
The published final rule making allows utilities to reference NuScale’s SMR design when applying for a combined license to build and operate a reactor. The design is an advanced light-water SMR with each power module capable of generating 50 megawatts of emissions-free electricity.

Learn more about SMRs here (13 mins):

This is a lovely documentary on Walruses affected by climate change (25 mins). It’s quite silent - and there are heartbreaking scenes, particularly the orphan walrus. Towards the end there is an explanation of his work.

🇨🇳 China / Taiwan

New alliances are emerging and new weapons systems are being built.

On his tour of Group of Seven countries last week, which came after the biggest overhaul of Japan’s security policy since World War II, Kishida told French President Emmanuel Macron that the security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific were indivisible. He signed a deal on mutual troop access with UK premier Rishi Sunak and agreed with Italian leader Giorgia Meloni to upgrade defense ties.
Japan’s alliance with Washington—complete with its “nuclear umbrella”—remains the cornerstone of its strategy, and US President Joe Biden endorsed the country’s more robust security strategy in a meeting with Kishida at the White House on Friday. Yet Japan’s deepening unease about the dangers in its neighborhood has prompted a fresh push to build a bulwark of other partnerships.

Japan’s Weapons Buildup to Bolster U.S. Efforts to Counter China

Japan’s plans to spend billions of dollars on missiles and other weapons to deter China and North Korea herald a new phase of military competition in Asia.

🇺🇦 Ukraine / Russia

We’re entering a new phase of the war soon. In 2023 we will likely see a further mobilisation announcement by Russia - perhaps putting the country on a firmer and larger war footing. This will no doubt alarm NATO generally, firmly placing us in a more risky world than we were in last year. The battles we may see will be unparalleled in nature since the 1940s. And the size of armies will also be large - approaching potentially 1 million on each side by the end of this year.

Given the recent gifting of large amounts of equipment from the West for Ukraine, including M2 Bradleys1, Marder IFVs, AMX-10s, Stryker IFVs2, Challenger 2s, CV90s3 and more - and instensified training on combined arms offensives it seems that a large Ukrainian offensive is planned for the Spring and Summer (and the West realises just how big and potentially long the war is going to be).

The attack will likely happen regardless of whether or not Leopard 2 tanks are delivered in time - but their delivery would increase the chances of Ukrainian success.

This attack will likely come first in the South (perhaps combined with other operations in the northeast), towards Melitopol, with potential feints to the east and west of Melitopol. As discussed by Sergii Grabskyi on the Geopolitics Decanted podcast (see pod recommendations), there is a scenario where Ukrainian forces aim for the Azov Sea via Melitopol, and perhaps even further into Crimea itself.

He mentions three prior invasions of Crimea, but it’s probably worth looking at the last two (excluding of course the 2014 annexation by Russia). These were the Germany army taking Crimea in 1941/42 and the Soviet army taking it back in 1944. It’s worth understanding how those played out. I recommend this two-parter:

Binkov also has a reasonable analysis (17 mins)

And one last one. If you’re wondering what modern conventional warfare looks and sounds like, here is a video showing the Ukrainian recapture of Novoselivsky at the end of last year. Any offensives this year will be larger, with more modern equipment. Warning: graphic content. (12 mins)

Bonus: The Russo-Ukrainian war ten months in: taking stock

🏛️ History - Rome

Why was Roman concrete so durable? It seems we now know why.

Previously disregarded as merely evidence of sloppy mixing practices, or poor-quality raw materials, the new study suggests that these tiny lime clasts gave the concrete a previously unrecognized self-healing capability. “The idea that the presence of these lime clasts was simply attributed to low quality control always bothered me,” says Masic. “If the Romans put so much effort into making an outstanding construction material, following all of the detailed recipes that had been optimized over the course of many centuries, why would they put so little effort into ensuring the production of a well-mixed final product? There has to be more to this story.”

Philosophy Corner (a journey through thinking about thinking every week)

(A serialised section that started with Greek Tragedy and moved to philosophy. Something to spark ideas. Feel free to go backwards!).

On hiatus - for now.

Documentary

(A good thing to watch - also serialised - so feel free to go back through past editions!)

It’s worth watching the BBC series: Auschwitz: The Nazis and the Final Solution. I just returned from a trip there. One of the guests interviewed - Oskar Groening - was later prosecuted and sentenced. He died at the age of 96, before serving his sentence.

Part one is here. (47 mins)

Podcast(s)

(The best stuff I’ve listened to, or been recommended by subscribers)

Geopolitics Decanted - why Ukraine may take Crimea next. (60 mins)
This is a really interesting discussion on rule of law and wealth inequality. It goes into some depth, but is worth it. (94 mins)
I learned more about an industry I knew nothing about in 52 mins than I thought possible. EVs, logging and large trucks.
An interview with Brian Cox (the Succession one). (67 mins)
The real story of how a fossil-fuel company became a wind giant (31 mins)