Hi everyone,
I hope you all had a great week. This is week five of this newsletter - which started out as - and remains - an experiment. What do I mean by that?
Format. What is the optimal format for a newsletter? (that has its focus learning/reading/getting more informed). What to include, or leave out?
Can these things have a meaningful positive impact on people during the pandemic as it plays out (and will for the coming years)? Given the amount of anxiety it creates?
Can we grow as people to learn more, adapt more, think more, and become better people (and societies), through a mixture of learning, optimism, realism and pragmatic idealism?
Can we solve the problems that confront us as a species before it’s too late? Because confronting realities is the best way to achieve this - and yes it may induce additional short term anxiety, - but also gets us faster on the path to possible solutions or at least mitigation of coming problems we all face.
A couple of other observations.
Years working in journalism taught me that to some extent newsrooms can imbue a sense of authority into those who write and communicate information to the broader public. With that can sometimes come a sense of false authority - or the idea that a voice from above, explaining a thing or a concept - is somehow more knowledgeable than the audience.
The blogging culture from which I came 18 years ago teaches you the opposite.
In newsrooms this can happen in overt and subtle ways. But one example: people can often be understandably embarrassed about not knowing something. Journalism culture can sometimes teach you never to admit this - because it can be a risk to your professional profile. Just pretend to know the thing until you can get to a computer and figure it out and do all the homework - fake it till you make it. To use a modern analogy - it’s like retweeting a tweet that contains a link to something you haven’t read yourself.
I always try to avoid doing this. Admit when you don’t know something and treat it not as an embarrassment, but as an opportunity to ask.
When you read philosophy too from an early age (as I was lucky to have done) you learn about learning via the limitations of both general human experience and in turn, your own. Admitting what you don’t know early on shortcuts lots of wasted energy, and can help you learn faster. It’s like the story surrounding the trial of Socrates in Plato’s Apology, during which Socrates (it is claimed) said:
Well, although I do not suppose that either of us knows anything really beautiful and good, I am better off than [the politician] is,-- for he knows nothing, and thinks that he knows; I neither know nor think that I know. In this latter particular, then, I seem to have slightly the advantage of him. Then I went to another who had still higher pretensions to wisdom, and my conclusion was exactly the same. Whereupon I made another enemy of him, and of many others besides him.
So starting with that - perhaps we can build a community of people eager to admit that they don’t know things but are also eager to learn new things. It’s worth experimenting with anyway - and it’s something that can be done regardless of age - indeed I assume readers of his newsletter are between the ages of 18 and 80 and are to varying degrees interested in different elements of its contents.
Or to put it another way - this newsletter is not an authority on anything - but one thing I’m certain of is that my own knowledge is always limited AND can always grow. As can everyone else’s.
Perhaps once we know more things, then in turn this knowledge can be turned into action. Because if there’s something we humans are very good at it’s talking endlessly about problems - much less so in building solutions.
I’ve talked about this in prior missives about my own understanding of problems such as biodiversity loss, climate change (or lately single-use plastics). And behind all of that is optimism - because if we don’t have that then it’s arguably a much more difficult world in which to live.
And never before in human history has so much information and knowledge been available to so many people at the same time (though not everyone yet), via the product of human invention - the internet.
As for this missive I like being transparent about it’s readership and other data, it’s just in my nature!
Week 1: 87 (of whom 8 are paid subscribers)
Week 2: 107 (of whom 10 are paid subscribers)
Week 3: 150 (of whom 12 are paid subscribers)
Week 4: 183 (of whom 13 are paid subscribers)
Week 5 (this week): 233 (of whom 15 are paid subscribers)
The open rates on the emails are about 60% which is quite high I think for this type of thing. And you all seem to be enjoying the links because most of pretty much all of them are clicked on. I haven’t really tweeted much about the newsletter so it’s been nice to see such interest - and I think we’re still in experimental mode! Paid subscription remains entirely voluntary - everyone gets the same content regardless. I’ve also had some feedback:
Make the format descriptions clearer for new subscribers
More stuff on scenario planning / futurism please
A well condensed reading list that’s useful for busy types (even journalists)
A typo was pointed out
Things I need to get better at besides the above: writing more of this each evening rather than leaving most of it to the weekend!
Have a great week (and do keep this email in your inbox for dipping in and out of!) As always, if you like the newsletter feel free to invite others to subscribe.
Best,
Gavin
Table of contents
News list
Reading list
Greek Tragedy Corner
Podcast
Documentary
Still sitting in my tabs
News list - (a read-in on something in the news this week)
This week we are going to read a bit more in depth about one of my favourite subjects, the ecosystems of conspiracy and misinformation, and the role the media plays.
Let’s start with the media.
Harvard’s Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society analysed 55,000 news stories, 5 million tweets and 75,000 FB posts and published a report. Laura Hazard Owen has a summary summary here. Their conclusion? Disinformation is being driven from the top by Trump himself and then primarily via traditional media, and media responding to false assertions.
In the coming months, it will be critical for editors of these national and local media, particularly on the television stations trusted by the least politically pre-committed and often least politically attentive citizens not to fall for the strategy that the president has used so skillfully in the past six months, not to capitulate to the inevitable charges of partisanship that will befall any journalists and editors who call the disinformation campaign by its name, and not to add confusion and uncertainty to their readers, viewers, and listeners by emphasizing false equivalents or diverting attention to exotic, but according to our research, peripheral actors like Facebook clickbait artists or Russian trolls.
(1,400 words/5 mins by Laura Hazard Owen) The full report is here. (24,000 words/ 90 mins) (I haven’t read it all yet - but did zone in on bits Laura pointed to)
How can the media report better?
If you’re not following James Fallows you should be, he’s consistently one of the best writers out there. In this piece from last month he examines the mistakes the media make in covering Trump. (4,000 words/15 mins by James Fallows). He explores it through three areas:
For the press, in these next 49 days, those can be grappling with (among other things) three of the most destructive habits in dealing with Donald Trump. For shorthand, they are the embrace of false equivalence, or both-sides-ism; the campaign-manager mentality, or horse-race-ism; and the love of spectacle, or going after the ratings and the clicks.
Fake rumours online
Wired magazine had a long piece about how an antifa rumour spread online. It’s fascinating how the rumour started with disinformation from far right groups and led to real world consequences in a small town, including a Facebook livestream that showed nothing, but people believed it showed something.
Lauren goes to talk to people about the aftermath of the attack on a bus that was fueled by false rumours - her interview with the logger Dan Larson is particularly illuminating. (10,000 words/30 mins by Lauren Smiley). Key quote:
“As of mid-September, a professor at Portland State University had tracked 610 incidents of far-right militants showing up at protests since George Floyd's death, instigating assaults and scuffles, firing shots, and driving cars into demonstrators; in more than 20 cases, disinformation led to their appearance at the events. FBI director Christopher Wray told Congress that a “majority of the domestic terrorism cases that we've investigated are motivated by some version of what you might call white-supremacist violence.”
What overlap does LARPing and online gaming have with Qanon?
This video from FT Alphaville covers interesting concepts related to Qanon - including Adam Curtis’ take on how people can be drawn into conspiracies. I’d say some of the contributors are quirky - but trying to answer the question - why and how do these things become a thing, is worth trying. (16 mins by Izabella Kaminska)
What role does loneliness have in totalitarianism?
A very interesting read here too. Samantha explores what loneliness is, how it has been defined in the past and how it is used now, and how Hannah Arendt’s own life and perspective on loneliness formed her views around how totalitarianism works. (3,400 words/12 mins by Samantha Rose Hill). Some quotes:
“Totalitarianism in power found a way to crystallise the occasional experience of loneliness into a permanent state of being. Through the use of isolation and terror, totalitarian regimes created the conditions for loneliness, and then appealed to people’s loneliness with ideological propaganda.”
And,
“By injecting a secret meaning into every event and experience, ideological movements are forced to change reality in accordance with their claims once they come to power. And this means that one can no longer trust the reality of one’s own lived experiences in the world. Instead, one is taught to distrust oneself and others, and to always rely upon the ideology of the movement, which must be right.”
Has Silicon Valley shifted to the right?
Coinbase recently announced a shift in policy around race and political beliefs as an organisation. In this piece Natasha goes deeper to explore the broader issues in Silicon Valley around alt-right or far right views, and the impact it is having on companies. (2,200 words/8 mins by Natasha Tiku) Key quote:
In a since-deleted tweet, which seemed to receive as much opprobrium as Coinbase’s policy change, [Former Twitter CEO] Costolo wrote, “Me-first capitalists who think you can separate society from business are going to be the first people lined up against the wall and shot in the revolution. I’ll happily provide video commentary.” Costolo did not respond to request for comment.
While Costolo could have put it better - there does seem to be a huge disconnect between companies operating in society and thinking they can operate outside of it. Arguments around paying tax are similar - companies may wish to have their cake and eat it, but they can’t or should not exist independently of society and societal norms and, well, democratic norms. And if they try to, they should assume they will be shunned.
Reading list - some of the best stuff to read
🔬 Politics - future conflict
Sweden is growing its military spending by 40% over the next five years. Like China in last week’s newsletter it is worth dwelling on this for a moment.
Scenario planning teaches you to look for disparate signals within patterns that may indicate a broader trend. How you think about different futures can be assessed in several ways - the favourite of mine is to put yourself 10-15-20 years into the future, and imagine yourself as a historian documenting past events. (Amy Webb tried to put some structure on these ideas in her 2016 book)
Norway is reopening a huge submarine base it sold off in 2009. It is likely it will be used by US submarines that need closer proximity to Russia and the Barents sea. There are several strategic reasons though, not least of which is the melting ice in the Arctic - a process that looks now to be unstoppable. This will open up the Arctic both for trade routes and resource exploitation.
So how do you imagine future scenarios? Studying history helps because it frames human experience (humans have not fundamentally changed just because of the last 200 years of industrialisation). At the very least I see things like this and add them to the list in my head of “signals” that may hint at broader things happening. I can reach provisional conclusions or “likelihood of outcome” based on these signals coalescing into something stronger.
And I always come back to - my gut says anything related to navies is always an interesting signal or leading indicator, because navies require the heaviest investment and lead time to build. It doesn’t mean anything beyond building models in your head about how various futures could turn out, and the likelihood of each. Food for the brain in other words.
The above two stories are part of the detecting signals thing - they can go in the bucket of trying to form a larger (hypo)thesis.
🔬 Science - graphene
Graphene is one of the most interesting discoveries of the past 20 years. This article explores recent advances in studying it, and possible new applications using twisted bilayer graphene. (3,500 words/13 mins by David H Freedman)
“The stakes in the race to come up with easier to make, better performing, higher-temperature superconductors are huge. Aside from the oft-evoked vision of levitating trains, reducing the energy loss in electric power transmission would boost economies and sharply cut harmful emissions around the world. Qubit fabrication could suddenly become practical, perhaps ushering in the rise of quantum computers. Even without superconductivity, ordinary computers and other electronics could get a huge boost in performance versus cost from twistronics, due to the fact that entire complex electronic circuits could in theory be built into a few sheets of pure carbon, without needing a dozen or more complexly etched layers of challenging materials common to today’s chips.”
🔬 Science - evolution
How did metabolisms come about? One thing I like about this piece is how it mixes biology with chemistry - somewhat artificial concepts introduced by humans to understand and explain the world around them. (1,700 words/6 mins by John Rennie) quote:
We can become too biased by what we see today in biology,” said Sheref Mansy, a professor of chemistry at the University of Alberta, who was not involved in the study. The paper shows that by fully exploring the potential of chemicals that could plausibly have existed at the dawn of life, “you can uncover things that would not have been obvious if you had this narrow view of what you think should have occurred.” He added, “I think in many ways, it is a game-changer.”
🔬 Science - superconductors
A positive development on room temperature superconductors. (1,500 words/5 mins by Charlie Wood)
🔬 Science - understanding organisms
To what extent are living organisms “intelligent” in a full stack sort of way, from cells all the way up? A long and very interesting read on understanding organisms. (6,000 words/22 mins by Michael Levin and (the famous) Dan Dennett.
In a phrase that will need careful unpacking, individual cells are not just building blocks, like the basic parts of a ratchet or pump; they have extra competences that turn them into (unthinking) agents that, thanks to information they have on board, can assist in their own assembly into larger structures, and in other large-scale projects that they needn’t understand….
Taking evolution seriously means asking what cognition looked like all the way back. Modern data in the field of basal cognition makes it impossible to maintain an artificial dichotomy of ‘real’ and ‘as-if’ cognition. There is one continuum along which all living systems (and many nonliving ones) can be placed, with respect to how much thinking they can do.
And related, maybe biodiversity thrives via a big game of rock, paper, scissors. (by Carrie Arnold)
🔬 Science - orbital refuelling
Now this is interesting. Nasa is awarding money for experimenting with orbital refuelling. This forms a key part in SpaceX’s plans to get to Mars and as reusable rockets become more common, refuelling in orbit will become more common, and more required. (700 words/2 mins) by Eric Berger
(This is also signals type stuff - the pace of space development is continuing to gather pace)
🔬 Science & politics - COVID
Propublica has a great long read on the fall of the CDC. (12,000 words/40 mins)
It’s worth reading the excerpt from the new book by Nicholas Christakis here (extracted to the WSJ) on the future scenarios for living with COVID generally.
🔬 Politics - US
Will the 21st century be one of illiberalism?
Jeffrey Toobin has a great essay that lays out what is likely to happen in the legal world during November and possibly December too - when Trump likely refuses to concede. How will it play out? (8,000 words/30 mins by Jeffrey Toobin).
Jake Tapper of CNN has a great essay on the role television plays in US politics (and indeed how people can be manipulated), and what we can learn from the 1957 film A Face in the Crowd. (2,800 words/10 mins)
Politics - social platforms
This is an excellent read on Facebook. It explores the history of Facebook moderation and how Facebook primarily sees it as a PR problem, not necessarily a societal one. (7,500 words/27 mins by Andrew Marantz)
🔬 Science - climate
Yet more calls for re-wilding. We will keep coming back to this.
Greek Tragedy corner
Last week we looked at Oedipus at ColonusThis week we will look at the next of the Theban plays - Antigone (which we explored earlier but let’s revert for the new subscribers). Have a watch of the 1986 production:
Podcast episode
Listen to Peter Geoghegan (a close friend) talk to Shaunagh Connaire (another friend) talking about Peter’s new book. I also get a mention related to my road trip with Peter in the US rustbelt in 2016. I might have to write more about that. (25 mins)
Documentary
The Death of Yugoslavia Part 5. A Safe Area (49 mins). Here’s the blurb for the episode when it aired.
“including picture, commentary, and subtitle information, relating to events in Bosnia and the role of the United Nations (UN) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), including UN Resolution 819 on the 'safe area' of Srebrencia, the Vance-Owen Plan for the division of Bosnia, fighting between Bosnian Croats and Bosnian Muslims; the deployment of Russian troops around Sarajevo, and the lead up to NATO bombing campaign (1993-1994).”
Also watch The Trial of the Chicago 7, a drama based on the true story. (2hr 10 mins)
Still sitting in my tabs
American Christianity’s White-Supremacy problem
The growing threat of American political violence
After Trump the GOP may go more extreme.
Twitter ban doubled misinformation attention
Thanks everyone!
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