Newsletter 79

Starlink nukes, inflation woes and naval drones

Nov 06, 2022

Hi, I’m Gavin. This is my experimental newsletter that explores thinking - how we might think better and learn together as we do so.

I explore several key topics through the lens of several core themes: systems thinking, scenario planning, trends, and cross-disciplinary innovation. These often relate to key issues: climate change, pandemics, astronomy, physics, health, history, philosophy, culture, rocketry, conflict, the impact of technology on society and more (lol!). With a larger question behind it all: how do we progress and how do we progress better?

I hope you like where we go. (1,068! - welcome all new arrivals)

Gavin

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Reading list - the best stuff to read

(The best reads I’ve come across, with excerpts, links, authors and how long it will take to read. Climate change, COVID and China are consistently the stories at the top so are semi-permanent)

🌏 Climate change & biodiversity destruction

We're substantially out of time.

Collective action is needed by the world’s nations more now than at any point since the second world war to avoid climate tipping points, Prof Johan Rockström said, but geopolitical tensions are at a high.
He said the world was coming “very, very close to irreversible changes … time is really running out very, very fast”.

Rebecca Solnit: Why climate despair is a luxury

Uninformed and misplaced hope leads to fruitless effort and disappointment. One of the complexities of climate change activism is that there is much to hope for, but within the parameters of the possible. For example, we can with swift and heroic effort stabilise global temperature, scientists tell us – but that will not stop the ice sheets melting and the seas rising for centuries to come (though it will help with the pace and extent of that melting). We can campaign for proven solutions and honest innovations, and not be taken in by the distractions, delaying tactics and false solutions now being pushed by the same interests who once brought us climate denial.

United States of megadrought

More than 80 percent of the continental U.S. is experiencing unusually dry conditions or full-on drought, which is the largest proportion since the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began tracking 20 years ago.
Winter is expected to intensify and spread the dry conditions, killing crops and increasing fire risks in regions that don’t usually face such dangers, NOAA says.

🦠 COVID-19

‘Prime and Spike’ nasal vaccine strategy helps combat COVID

The new vaccine approach developed by Yale researchers — which is known as “Prime and Spike” — is designed to jumpstart immune response in the respiratory system, which is the first part of the body to be infected by the virus.
Intramuscular vaccine shots, which are what most people have received to protect against COVID-19 infection, provide a broad-based immune response throughout the body and help avert serious illness. However, that protection has tended to wane after about four months, leaving people susceptible to breakthrough infections and emerging variants.
The new “prime” and “spike” approach may help prevent breakthrough infections of vaccinated individuals by bolstering immune response within the mucosal lining of the respiratory tract, which are the first cells attacked by COVID-19. (“Prime” refers to the process of injecting the vaccine directly into the muscle, as is typically done. “Spike” refers to a follow-up vaccination with spike proteins, known to derive from the coronavirus, directly into the nostril, where the virus is known to enter the body.)

🇨🇳 China / Taiwan

A US Navy admiral has warned that a war with China is coming.

Navy Admiral Charles A. Richard, has warned that the U.S. should anticipate, and prepare for, a protracted conflict with China in the near future – which could be triggered by further hostile actions toward Taiwan by Chinese forces. U.S. Strategic Command - one of the Defense Department's (DoD) 11 unified combatant commands in the U.S. Department of Defense - is responsible for America's nuclear triad.

Taiwan is worried about their undersea cables.

Taiwan has 14 subsea cables -- many little wider than a garden hose -- stretching thousands of miles and directly linking Asian nations including China to the US and other parts of the world. That’s a vulnerability the island’s government, seeing any interruption as potentially destabilizing, wants to minimize. A disruption in a conflict with China could result in Taiwan getting cut off from the world, similar to what happened to the Pacific Island nation of Tonga earlier this year when a volcanic eruption left it without internet access for more than a month.
“Undersea cables are a serious Achilles’ Heel to Taiwan,” said Kenny Huang, chief executive officer at the Taiwan Network Information Center, a non-profit partially owned by Taiwan’s government.

Chinese physicists simulate nuclear blast against satellites (in particular, Starlink). In previous editions we looked at how China might perceive Starlink and Starship - given their potential for use in both civilian and military contexts.

A nuclear blast in near space could create a radioactive cloud over an area as big as New York state, crippling or destroying satellites in near-Earth orbit, according to a new computer simulation conducted by a team of Chinese military scientists.
At the Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology, a research institute run by the People’s Liberation Army in Xian, researchers developed a model that can evaluate the performance of nuclear anti-satellite weapons at different altitudes and yields with unprecedented detail and accuracy.
The simulation results suggest that a 10-megaton warhead – modestly powerful by today’s standards – could create a serious threat to satellites if it detonates at an altitude of 80km (50 miles).

…

Chinese military researchers say the country needs to be able to disable or destroy SpaceX’s Starlink satellites if they threaten national security.
According to a paper published last month, China needs to develop anti-satellite capabilities, including a surveillance system with unprecedented scale and sensitivity to track and monitor every Starlink satellite.
The study was led by Ren Yuanzhen, a researcher with the Beijing Institute of Tracking and Telecommunications under the PLA’s Strategic Support Force. Co-authors included several senior scientists in China’s defence industry.
Ren and his colleagues could not immediately be reached for comment and it is uncertain to what extent their view represents an official stance of the Chinese military or government.
“A combination of soft and hard kill methods should be adopted to make some Starlink satellites lose their functions and destroy the constellation’s operating system,” said the paper, published in domestic peer-reviewed journal Modern Defence Technology.

TSMC Suspends Work for Chinese Chip Startup Amid US Curbs

Worth watching:

🇺🇦 Ukraine / Russia

Ukraine’s Unprecedented Mass Drone Boat Attack Was A Wakeup Call

So here we are. Increasingly advanced unmanned boats packed with explosives will be yet another threat to contend with. Everyone is watching the conflict in Ukraine very closely, especially potentially nefarious actors including China, Iran, and North Korea. Take the latter for instance. They could unleash hundreds of similar boats — even ones that need no communications and go after static targets — onto targets in South Korea at the opening of the conflict, which already features a conventional war plan that works to achieve ultimate chaos above all else. The fact is that these are weapon systems that can relatively easily achieve considerable range and will have the command and control architecture to support them. As such, they are growing into the realm of regional capabilities.
And no, this doesn't mean the suicide drone boat is some sort of super weapon that puts everything at risk today. That's just not the case. Still, in a number of circumstances, they are a growing concern — especially as they evolve. And those concerns have become more dire after what happened in Crimea over the weekend. At the same time, they are also a major opportunity. Remember, potential enemies don't have a monopoly on this concept, of course. The U.S. and its allies could mass-produce suicide drone boats of various capability levels very quickly as they already have deep knowledge of swarming unmanned surface vessel technology, as does China.

Philosophy Corner (a journey through thinking about thinking every week)

(A serialised section that started with Greek Tragedy and moved to philosophy. Something to spark ideas. Feel free to go backwards!).

We are complete on the series.. so nothing here for now!

Documentary

(A good thing to watch - also serialised - so feel free to go back through past editions!)

We’re skipping one in the series as I can’t track down a good copy,

Willard Van Orman Quine of Harvard stands as one of the modern world’s most eminent philosophers. In this rare interview conducted by world-renowned author and professor Bryan Magee, Quine discusses his earlier view of himself as a mathematical logician, and his later interest in philosophy in a more general sense—specifically, regarding metaphysics and the philosophy of language.