Newsletter 75
Fabricating science data, protein folding and quantum sensing
Hi, I’m Gavin. This is my experimental newsletter that explores thinking - how we might think better and learn together as we do so.
I explore several key topics through the lens of several core themes: systems thinking, scenario planning, trends, and cross-disciplinary innovation. These often relate to key issues: climate change, pandemics, astronomy, physics, health, history, philosophy, culture, rocketry, conflict, the impact of technology on society and more (lol!). With a larger question behind it all: how do we progress and how do we progress better?
I hope you like where we go. (1,027, 1,030 - welcome all new arrivals)
Gavin
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Reading list - the best stuff to read
(The best reads I’ve come across, with excerpts, links, authors and how long it will take to read. Climate change, COVID and China are consistently the stories at the top so are semi-permanent)
🌏 Climate change & biodiversity destruction
We’re in trouble. (4 mins by Robin McKie)
“In the real world, that is not going to happen,” says McGuire. “Instead, we are on course for close to a 14% rise in emissions by that date – which will almost certainly see us shatter the 1.5C guardrail in less than a decade.”
And we should be in no doubt about the consequences. Anything above 1.5C will see a world plagued by intense summer heat, extreme drought, devastating floods, reduced crop yields, rapidly melting ice sheets and surging sea levels. A rise of 2C and above will seriously threaten the stability of global society, McGuire argues. It should also be noted that according to the most hopeful estimates of emission cut pledges made at Cop26, the world is on course to heat up by between 2.4C and 3C.
Though, re the headline:
In ominous sign for global warming, feedback loop may be accelerating methane emissions (3 mins by Paul Voosen)
Atmospheric methane levels have risen nearly 7% since 2006, and the past 2 years saw the biggest jumps yet, even though the pandemic slowed oil and gas production, presumably reducing methane leaks. Now, researchers are homing in on the source of the mysterious surge. Two new preprints trace it to microbes in tropical wetlands. Ominously, climate change itself might be fueling the trend by driving increased rain over the regions.
If so, the wetlands emissions could end up being a runaway process beyond human control, although the magnitude of the feedback loop is uncertain. “We will have handed over a bit more control of Earth’s climate to microorganisms,” says Paul Palmer, an atmospheric chemist at the University of Edinburgh and co-author of one of the studies, posted late last month for review at Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
🦠 COVID-19
Always read Ed Yong. (8 mins by Ed Yong)
The belief that viruses inevitably evolve into milder versions is a myth: Such futures are possible but in no way guaranteed. The coronavirus could yet evolve into more severe variants, although vaccines would still be expected to blunt their sting. It could become even more contagious, although the traits that would give it a speed boost, such as higher viral loads or tighter attachments to human cells, can’t ratchet up forever. “It’s already super-transmissible, and there’s not much to gain there,” Anne Hahn told me.
Immune evasion is another matter. The virus is likely now locked with the human immune system in a perpetual evolutionary arms race. A variant emerges to circumvent our existing immunity, then vaccines and infections gradually rebuild our defenses … until another variant emerges. This is exactly what happens with flu, but the coronavirus seems to be changing even more quickly. The big uncertainty is whether the next variants will erode immunity to the small degrees that scientists expect (as BA.5 is doing) or whether they’ll do something dramatic and unexpected (as BA.1 did). This is what “living with COVID” means—a continual cat-and-mouse game that we can choose to play seriously or repeatedly forfeit.
🇨🇳 China / Taiwan
China continues the number and variety of incidents relating to Taiwan. (2 mins by Kris Osborn)
Ratner observed that this kind of Chinese behavior has a long history and may indeed be escalating to yet a new level. “These are not isolated incidents,” Ratner stated. “Over the last five years, the number of unsafe PLA [People’s Liberation Army] intercepts, including U.S. allies and partners operating lawfully in international airspace in the South China Sea has increased dramatically with dozens of dangerous events in the first half of this year alone. In my view, this aggressive and irresponsible behavior represents one of the most significant threats to peace and stability in the region today, including in the South China Sea.”
Also China seems to be preparing for very large military exercises:
🇺🇦 Ukraine / Russia
A good read on the impending/escalating battle for Kherson:
A good discussion on possible future scenarios, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia (should Crimea be threatened). Simes makes good points about how Russia might react to Ukrainian counter-offensives (and how observers can choose what they want to see). (62 mins)
Also worth reading Anne Applebaum this month.
In truth, Russian bombs are targeting not only random people, shops, medical buildings, pets. They are also targeting the whole apparatus of international law governing war crimes, human rights, and terrorism. With every bomb that Russian forces knowingly drop on an apartment building, and every missile they direct at a school or hospital, they are demonstrating their scorn and contempt for the global institutions Russia was once so desperate to join. The Ukrainian and international lawyers and prosecutors who are collecting the evidence will, in the end, be able to present not just one or two cases demonstrating war crimes, but thousands. Russia’s war is unprecedented, and the demand for justice in its aftermath will be unprecedented too.
🧠 Biology - fabricating data
This is the best science investigation I’ve read in years. It raises serious questions about the basis for beliefs in how we believe Alzheimers is caused. (16 mins by Charles Piller)
A 6-month investigation by Science provided strong support for Schrag’s suspicions and raised questions about Lesné’s research. A leading independent image analyst and several top Alzheimer’s researchers—including George Perry of the University of Texas, San Antonio, and John Forsayeth of the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF)—reviewed most of Schrag’s findings at Science’s request. They concurred with his overall conclusions, which cast doubt on hundreds of images, including more than 70 in Lesné’s papers. Some look like “shockingly blatant” examples of image tampering, says Donna Wilcock, an Alzheimer’s expert at the University of Kentucky.
More here. Faked Beta-Amyloid Data. What Does It Mean?
Also see: Common viruses may be triggering the onset of Alzheimer's disease
🧬 AI - Protein breakthrough
Big news. (3 mins by Ewan Callaway)
Researchers have used AlphaFold — the revolutionary artificial-intelligence (AI) network — to predict the structures of some 200 million proteins from 1 million species, covering nearly every known protein on the planet.
The data dump will be freely available on a database set up by DeepMind, Google’s London-based AI company that developed AlphaFold, and the European Molecular Biology Laboratory’s European Bioinformatics Institute (EMBL-EBI), an intergovernmental organization near Cambridge, UK.
Also see: ‘New era in digital biology’: AI reveals structures of nearly all known proteins
Also see DeepMind’s post: AlphaFold reveals the structure of the protein universe
🇵🇱 Conflict - Polish purchases
300,000 soldiers - 200,000 in land forces? Poland is on its way to become the largest land force in Europe. This comes after a series of announcements or expressions of purchases of lots of new equipment, including 500 HIMARS and 100s of tanks and artillery from South Korea suppliers. This feels like one of those little points in history you read in history books.
See: Analysis: With massive Polish arms deal S.Korea steps closer to Ukraine war
And: Poland’s massive tank, artillery and jet deal with S. Korea comes in shadow of Ukraine war
Binkov has a good summary here: (17 mins)
🇨🇱 Chile - a proposed constitution
Chile proposes new constitution steeped in science and environmentalism. (4 mins by Emiliano Mega)
The proposal has been called an ‘ecological constitution’ because it emphasizes environmental rights. It says the state has a duty to prevent and adapt to the risks of the climate and biodiversity crises, as well as to mitigate their effects. It “considers that the human being is part of nature, and therefore its care is a condition for human survival”, explains Pilar Moraga, deputy director of the Center for Climate and Resilience Research in Santiago. Most notably, the document says nature has its own rights, meaning that it can legally be protected, even in the absence of direct harm to people. In an online panel this month, David Boyd, the United Nations special rapporteur on human rights and the environment, who is based on Pender Island, Canada, said that major industries aren’t likely to be pleased with the ecological provisions. If the constitution is enacted, many lawsuits will pop up, he said, and the Chilean government will need to stand its ground to fight against these “vested interests”.
The full text is here. I’ve created an automated translation of it here.
🇺🇸 United States - authoritarianism
The coming years could see US democracy deteriorate much further. (6 mins by Brian Klass)
The American system isn’t just dysfunctional. It’s dying. Nyhan believes there is now a “significant risk” that the 2024 election outcome will be illegitimate. Even Frantz, who has been more optimistic about America’s democratic resilience in the past, doesn’t have a particularly reassuring retort to the doom-mongers: “I don’t think U.S. democracy will collapse, but just hover in a flawed manner for a while, as in Poland.”
Also read this deeply disturbing interview with Peter Thiel, as he fantasises about a post-democracy world of princes and kings, under the pretence of discussing societal progress.
And this on his protégé: Blake Masters is Peter Thiel's dream candidate—and a total nightmare for democracy
🙈 Science - Quantum sensing
What is quantum sensing? As explained to 5 levels of complexity. (20 mins)
Philosophy Corner (a journey through thinking about thinking every week)
(A serialised section that started with Greek Tragedy and moved to philosophy. Something to spark ideas. Feel free to go backwards!).
We are nearing the end of this series. Next up, in contrast to Rawls in the last edition, is Nozick.
Robert Nozick’s Anarchy, State and Utopia (1974) was designed as a rebuttal to Rawls but it was so much more than that. It offered a defence of the minimal state that appealed to the writers of The Sopranos and a vision of utopia that appealed to the founders of Silicon Valley. David explores what Nozick wanted to achieve and identifies the surprising radicalism behind his political minimalism.
Nozick on Utopia (46 mins)
Documentary
(A good thing to watch - also serialised - so feel free to go back through past editions!)
We are on the next episode: this time it’s AJ Ayer discussing logical positivism. Karl Popper comes up towards the end.
Podcast(s)
(The best stuff I’ve listened to, or been recommended by subscribers)
On Ukraine, Michael Kofman as ever is key listening. War on the Rocks (23 mins)
The OSINT bunker episode was good. (81 mins)
Also on Ukraine - logistics chat. (37 mins)
Why giving Ukraine F-16s make sense (39 mins)
Odd Lots continues to put out excellent episodes. Listen to the most recent one on Chile (42 mins) and on energy transition/coal (46 mins).
Still in my tabs
(Or stuff I haven’t read yet, but looks promising)
We don’t have a hundred biases, we have the wrong model
The CHIPS Act Passes Congress to Boost US Semiconductor Production
The Real Reason Woodpeckers Don’t Get Concussions
Is Selling Shares in Yourself the Way of the Future?
Two Weeks In, the Webb Space Telescope Is Reshaping Astronomy
A Crypto Game Promised to Lift Filipinos Out of Poverty. Here's What Happened Instead
New evidence hints at the role of gut microbiota in autistic spectrum disorder
First-of-its-kind solar tower brews jet fuel from water and CO2
US regulators will certify first small nuclear reactor design
After 350 years, sea gives up lost jewels of Spanish shipwreck
China launches 2nd space station module to support science experiments
Webb spots new contender for earliest galaxy
A stand-alone solar farm in Crete that integrates graphene perovskite solar panels
‘Everybody is so excited’: South Korea set for first Moon mission
Scientists find 30 potential new species at bottom of ocean
Genetically engineered rice needs less fertilizer, makes more food
Some infectious viruses ‘hitchhike’ on tiny plastics found in water