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Hi, Iâm Gavin. This is my experimental newsletter that explores thinking - how we might think better and learn together as we do so.
I explore several key topics through the lens of several core themes: systems thinking, scenario planning, trends, and cross-disciplinary innovation. These often relate to key issues: climate change, pandemics, astronomy, physics, health, history, philosophy, culture, rocketry, conflict, the impact of technology on society and more (lol!). With a larger question behind it all: how do we progress and how do we progress better?
I hope you like where we go. (974 - nope - 1,014 of us now! - welcome all new arrivals)
Gavin
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Reading list - the best stuff to read
(The best reads Iâve come across, with excerpts, links, authors and how long it will take to read. Climate change, COVID and China are consistently the stories at the top so are semi-permanent)
đ Climate change & biodiversity destruction
The AMOC is at its weakest in 1,000 years. (4 mins by Chelsea Harvey)
The big question: Is climate change causing the slowdown? Or is it just a natural fluctuation?
For now, scientists say, itâs probably some of both.
A new study, published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change, finds that the current is indeed slowing and that climate change is likely playing at least a small part. But the currentâs behavior is still within the range of its own natural patterns.
In other words, the climate change signal hasnât yet pushed the current outside the bounds of its historically ânormalâ behavior. The signal from natural variability âbasically dominatesâ the signal from human-caused warming, according to lead study author Mojib Latif, a scientist at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel in Germany.
The oceans could face a mass extinction (2 mins by Chelsea Harvey)
If climate change continues unabated, marine life worldwide could suffer a mass die-off, the likes of which hasnât been seen in hundreds of millions of years.
Thatâs the dire warning in a new study published yesterday in the journal Science by Princeton researchers Justin Penn and Curtis Deutsch.
An extreme future climate scenarioâassuming as much as 5 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the centuryâwould trigger a mass extinction within the next 300 years. The event could rival the âGreat Dyingâ that occurred at the end of the Permian Period 250 million years ago, in which around 90 percent of ocean life is believed to have vanished.
In this worst-case scenario, ocean temperatures would rise, resulting in less dissolved oxygen. Some marine animals would attempt to migrate toward the poles in search of better conditions. Some might succeedâbut in warmer areas, like the tropics, many species would die off.
Closer to the poles, many life forms would run out of places to go. These organisms would disappear from the Earth entirely.
Experts evaluated available data for more than 10,000 reptile species and assessed their conservation status as categorized by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. A total of 1829 species are either vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered. The researchers did not have enough information to evaluate conservation status for 1507 species so they extrapolated for those, assuming a similar portion are at risk of extinction.
đŚ COVID-19
Nothing this week (good I guess?)
đşđŚ Ukraine / Russia
A fascinating read. (11 mins by Peter Pomerantsev)
Yet after meeting with the Horbonoses and, in the same week, with their nationâs leader, President Volodymyr Zelensky, I was struck by how clearly the familyâs experience also informs a question haunting the many politicians, officials, journalists, and activists in Ukraine and abroad desperately trying to bring this war to a close: How do you persuade Russians who have been fed an unending series of lies to drop their support for Putinâs invasion of Ukraine?
An interesting look at Russian Navy design (17 mins)
The War in Ukraine Is a Colonial War (15 mins by Timothy Snyder)
F-35 Pilot: NATO Could âCompletely Destroy the Russian Forcesâ (4 mins by Kyle Mizokami)
đ¨đł China / Taiwan
Russia's Ukrainian quagmire providing tough lessons for China (5 mins by Greg Torode et al)
Russia's approach in the early stages of the war did not subdue Ukrainian forces, which emboldened the international community to intervene with intelligence sharing, military equipment and the economic isolation of Russia.
"China probably should think about conducting a much stronger and much more comprehensive operation at the very beginning to shock and awe the Taiwanese forces to secure a major advantage," Zhao said, referring to observations from Chinese strategists.
They believe securing that advantage would "deter enemy forces from being willing to intervene", he said.
đ Society - teen crisis
The NYT explores mental health among teens (15 mins)
𧏠Evolution - facial expressions
Facial expressions donât reveal emotions. (7 mins by Lisa Feldman Barrett)
A preponderance of evidence shows that Darwin was wrong, and his mistake was a doozy. In real life, people express a given emotion with tremendous variability. In anger, for example, people in urban cultures scowl (or make some of the facial movements for a scowl) only about 35 percent of the time, according to meta-analyses of studies measuring facial movement during emotion. Scowls are also not specific to anger because people scowl for other reasons, such as when they are concentrating or when they have gas. The same tremendous variation occurs for every emotion studiedâand for every other measure that purportedly tells us about someoneâs emotional state, whether itâs their physiology, voice or brain activity.
đ Space - SpinLaunch
SpinLaunch released a new video of an April 22nd flight test. (3 mins)
đ Astronomy - exoplanets
What an interesting approach. (3 mins by Emily Moskal)
In a paper published on May 2 in The Astrophysical Journal, the researchers describe a way to manipulate solar gravitational lensing to view planets outside our solar system. By positioning a telescope, the sun, and exoplanet in a line with the sun in the middle, scientists could use the gravitational field of the sun to magnify light from the exoplanet as it passes by. As opposed to a magnifying glass which has a curved surface that bends light, a gravitational lens has a curved space-time that enables imaging far away objects.
"We want to take pictures of planets that are orbiting other stars that are as good as the pictures we can make of planets in our own solar system," said Bruce Macintosh, a physics professor at in the School of Humanities and Sciences at Stanford and deputy director of the Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology (KIPAC). "With this technology, we hope to take a picture of a planet 100 light-years away that has the same impact as Apollo 8's picture of Earth."
đŹ Biology - cell division
An explanation of asynthetic fission - a new type of cell division. Fascinating. (4 mins)
đ§ Environment - pollution
John Oliver had a good segment on pollution and environmental racism. (22 mins)
Also on the subject of lead pollution, brain damage and the relationship between crime and lead poisoning is this (and an explanation of what octanes are - a new one to me!) (25 mins)
Philosophy Corner
(A serialised section that started with Greek Tragedy and moved to philosophy. Something to spark ideas. Feel free to go backwards!).
Rosa Luxemburg on Revolution (46 mins)
Rosa Luxemburg wrote âThe Russian Revolutionâ (1918) from a jail cell in Germany. In it she described how the Bolshevik revolution was going to change the world but also explained how and why it was already going badly wrong. David explores the origins of Luxemburgâs insights, from her experiences in Poland to her love/hate relationship with Lenin. Plus he tells the story of her terrible end.
Documentary
(A good thing to watch - also serialised - so feel free to go back through past editions!)
On hiatus!
Podcast(s)
(The best stuff Iâve listened to, or been recommended by subscribers)
Ezra Klein interviews Ivan Krastev and it is a fascinating chat. (70 mins)
Will there be a nuclear war? An interview with Emma Claire Foley
Subscriber Mark Coughlan recommended an earlier episode from Angry Planet on American power. (41 mins)
Subscriber Anne Marie Quilligan recommended this February episode of Hidden Brain which explores bias. (48 mins)
Subscriber Ella McSweeney recommended this new series on climate change: âMum, will the planet die before I do?â
Still in my tabs
(Or stuff I havenât read yet, but looks promising)
Putin Is Losing So Hereâs How Heâll Make the War Worse
Does Quantum Mechanics Reveal That Life Is But a Dream?
Massive study of pet dogs shows breed does not predict behaviour
Elegant Six-Page Proof Reveals the Emergence of Random Structure
AI Sommelier Generates Wine Reviews without Ever Opening a Bottle
Itâs Time to Open the Black Box of Social Media
The Navy Extracted a Jet Fighter from 12,400 Feet below the South China Sea